Start the Healing

So, the World Series ended last week with the Red Sox winning their second championship in 4 years. I watched it with Divya and Guatam, who went to school in Boston. I really enjoy explaining the game I love so much. D&G are Red Sox fans and know plenty about baseball, but I love answering questions about the game and describing the intricacies. They seemed to enjoy it as well, asking me lots of questions. I just love postseason baseball so much.

The Cubbies made the playoffs after clinching the Central. As you probably know, they were swept out of the playoffs by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs played poorly as a team, with the most painful performance being that Aramis Ramirez did not get a hit in the 3 game series. But baseball is a team game and we didn't pitch particularly well either. The big story there was that Zambrano was taken out of game one after just 85 pitches. I don't really fault Lou for this. Despite not giving up many runs, Z had gotten himself in trouble several times during that game and turning it over to Marmol (who was one of the best relievers in baseball this year) was questionable, but certainly defendable. We pay him to make the hard decisions.

Everyone knows I'm a big Cubs fan and when we got swept, everyone wanted to talk about it. I don't think dad and I talked about it for a couple days afterwards. It is painful to get swept, but you have to remember the good. We lost 96 games last year and were the worst in the NL. That is a huge turn around. The Cubs have proven they are willing to do what it takes to put a contender on the field and I'm looking forward to the offseason.

I don't expect huge splashes, but we certainly have some needs. I'd like to see Woody re-signed. I'd like to bolster the pitching, even if just in minor ways like that. I think he deserves a 2 year deal. More pressing, we are going to need a centerfielder or corner outfielder. The Cubs did not pick up the option on Floyd. So, you've got Jacque Jones to play right or center. I'd like to see a corner outfielder with some power or a centerfielder who really gets on base. The centerfielder market is deep this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubbies make a play for one of them.

The rest of the year after baseball is always slow, but now that the offseason is here, you can start the speculation. You can start running the numbers. The Hot Stove is just starting to warm. I hate winter, but there will be some sporadic updates to the site. I'll leave you with my favorite baseball quote, it is about the offseason and is from a Cubs 2nd baseman.

“People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” - Rogers Hornsby

I couldn't have said it better myself. Last year pitchers and catchers reported on my birthday. I can't wait until I turn 27.

Clutch Hitting Continued

This quickly got too big for a comment, but is in reference to CubTattoo's article earlier today.

You won't believe this, but we are actually batting .293 with RISP, which is the best in the NL (3rd in MLB behind Seattle and Detroit). Our team batting average is almost .270 (.011 above NL average) and we are scoring 4.65 runs per game. In fact, we are at or above average in every major offensive category (OBP, SLG, P/PA, GIDP and BABIP).

SO it must be the pitching... Nope, not that either. Same as above. Runs/game 4.29 (a 0.36 runs per game discrepancy vs. our offense!). ERA is 0.13 below average. Homers per game are only very slightly higher than average, but our homers per fly ball are below average. Ks per game are up and BBs per game are average.

Hmmm, what could it be? Well, we do have quite a few errors. Yea, 1.125 error above average, on the season (that is virtually nothing). So, we are hitting well, we are pitching well and our fielding might look bad, but it is not resulting in errors. Stolen bases are above average and CS% is below.

Not to get too "mathy", but our Pythagorean Difference is -6. This means with the amount of runs we score vs. the amount we give up, you should take 6 losses off the board and tack on 6 wins. This basically flip-flops our record and would put us toward the top of the NL Central (if you factor the +2 games of the mildly lucky Brew Crew, we'd be leading).

The scientific explanation? We suck. When you look at averages, they weight two games where you score 5 runs the same as one game scoring 9 and the other game scoring 1. Well, in baseball, consistency is the key. And the Cubs are anything but consistent. Look at the losing streak:
1-2, 3-5, 4-9, 0-9, 5-8, 3-5, and then wins 10-1 and 7-2. You can just see how our averages are on track, but we lost almost every game. Over 8 horrible, pathetic games, we only scored 1 less run per game than we gave up, but we went 2-6.

Now I'm out of stats and we have to try to draw conclusions. I blame the bullpen a lot, because they make a game we could come back during, a blowout. But you have to share blame with the hitters, who are also really inconsistent. Maybe it is the line-up (Lou shuffles it every day). Maybe mis-use of the bullpen (they all suck anyway). Unfortunately they just aren't getting it done consistently. I like shuffling the line-up, but I have never thought that we were using it to its best ability. You can't bat Soriano 1st just because he's fast! How many runs are you leaving on the field when he hits a dinger?!? Sorry, sore subject.

As always, I use the Hardball Times as my resource for stats.

The Rumble in the Dugout

My Cubbies are on a slide. The season has not started out as everyone had hoped. Highest expectations were a 90 win team and average expectations were they could win 81 - 85. Unfortunately, the bullpen (a relative strength last year) has fallen apart. There has been no timely hitting and while 3 starters have been solid (Hill, Lilly & Marquis), the ace of the staff (Crazy Carlos Zambrano) has struggled. Things boiled over yesterday while Zambrano was in the middle of a meltdown. Big Z's ERA this season is a hefty 5.62, while he has never had a season ERA over 3.66 in his career.

Zambrano threw a pitch low and outside while Barrett was obviously expecting it inside. Michael ole'd the catch and let it pass. He then had a throwing error in to the outfield. When the inning was over, Carlos came at Michael, pointing to his head as if to say, "Where is your head?!?" Michael then pointed to the scoreboard and likely said something to the effect of, "Those 15 hits weren't my fault." The two came to slap-fight blows before they were very quickly broken up. Apparently the ruckus boiled over again in the clubhouse and Barrett went to the hospital for stitches to his mouth after the game.

2 things here:

1. Never fight a Cubs pitcher. Anyone remember when Farnsworth football-tackled Paul Wilson of the Reds who decided to walk towards the mound? Farnsworth pummeled him! The guy left with a shirt full of blood. Have you seen Carlos after a good inning or bad at-bat? The guy is nuts! He breaks bats on his knee and fist pumps like he's Ali. And Barrett? His last fight, he threw a sucker punch and failed to even phase Pierzynski. Bet on Crazy Carlos.

2. This had better energize the team. Carlos has already taken full blame for the fight and I think the two of them will be fine as it comes to teammates. But, Lou Pineilla had better get his stuff together. These guys need a fire under them and if Lou can get everyone together and really energize the team, they could string together some wins. He needs to throw a tantrem during a game, and soon. Get tossed. Throw bases, cuss at umps. I know he's got the fire. Energize and rally your team around this and get us some wins!