The Cardinals have signed Cesar Izturis and the Astros have signed Kaz Matsui, effectively saving us from ourselves. I call this a shortstop update, because I think that's what the Cubs would have asked Kaz to play. Also there is the Cardinals news. The Cardinals move isn't as big of a deal because the Cubs would not have brought Izturis back for another round in Chicago. However, it has interesting implications because it likely means they will not be offering David Eckstein arbitration. That would be a great pick up for my Cubbies if they don't feel any of their young players will be solid starters this year. Eckstein has some injury issues, but having backups like Theriot and Cedeno might be an optimal situation for taking on that risk. The upside is high.
Also, by the Stros signing Matsui, the Cubs dodged a horrible-contract bullet. Indications were that Hendry wanted Matsui, luckily they didn't spend what the Astros did. Early comments on the hot stove blogs are that the signing is an early favorite to be the worst of the off-season. The Astros reportedly gave Matsui (whose mediocrity I've discussed previously) 3 years, $15-16 million. Wow.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
State of the Cubs Pitching
The latest poll results on Cubs.com has Cub Fans saying the major need for the team is another front-end starter. I'm not so sure.
SP-
Carlos Zambrano
Rich Hill
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis
Sean Marshall
Ryan Dempster
Mark Prior
RP-
Scott Eyre
Bobby Howry
Neal Cotts
Michael Wuertz
Will Ohman
Juan Mateo
Angel Guzman
Kevin Hart
Adam Harben
Billy Petrick
Carmen Pignatiello
Jeff Samardzija
CP- Carlos Marmol
As I stated in the last post, this is part of the 40-man roster and is meant to save players from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. That's why Samardzija and a couple other rookies are on there. I don't expect to see Jeff this year. Hopefully he can get up to Iowa and pitch well. There is no need to rush him. I hear he has been pretty solid in the minors so far.
The Cubs pitching seems to be a couple tweaks away from great. We have 6 starting pitchers, if you include Prior, who I have heard is already out until mid-way through the season next year. Also of note is that he will be a free agent after next season. Ok, so call it 5 starting pitchers. However, Lou and Jim Hendry want to move Dempster back to the rotation. So, that is back up to 6. This leaves the odd man out to be Sean Marshall. That's fine. He wasn't amazing (though I thought he was quite good) and another long relief pitcher who could make spot starts is a very useful thing to have.
However, there seems to be a good amount of rumbling that we need another pitcher. Rumors are that we have been heavily scouting a Japanese pitcher named Hiroki Kuroda. Not sure where we'll fit him in, but starting pitching is always good to have. I think part of the thinking here is that they want to have 2 Japanese player to ease the transition if they dip in to that market (remember Kosuke Fukudome). There were also rumors of signing Kaz Matsui to ease the transition. That would accomplish the goal, since he has played in the MLB for a couple years now and is Japanese. However, he is a 32 year old middle infielder and not all that good. Hiroki, however, is pretty good. He's a free agent now and the Cubs tried to get him posted last year to no avail. His numbers are not bad. He had 144 strikeouts to just 21 walks 2 years ago with a 1.85 ERA. That is amazing control. Last year he leveled back out, but still had 123K / 42BB and a 3.56 ERA. The ERA last year is not very good, but the other numbers are nice. We'll see how it turns out. Sounds like the Mariners are pretty interested as well.
UPDATE 11/26/07: Cubs sign Wood to a 1 year deal reportedly for $4 million plus up to $3 mil in incentives. I think this is a great signing. With Dempster probably moving to the rotation, I think Wood has a great chance to be the new closer. Plus you are only on the hook for 1 year. Love it!
Woody is a free agent and is getting some interest from other teams (namely Boston). I would like to have him back, but word on the street is that he would like to be a starter again. I'm not so sure that's a good idea with his injury problems (but you just never know, he could be healthy). You can say we wouldn't need him as a starter, but if he ever returned to what he once was, you would have to make room for him. People ask why we don't just cut ties with Wood and Prior to get it over with. Do you remember in 2003 when Dusty Baker said that Carlos Zambrano would be the best of the Wood/Prior/Big Z combo? A lot of people thought he was nuts. You have to remember how good Wood and Prior were back then. If they can stay healthy and get back an inkling of that dominance, they'd be some of the best pitchers on our staff.
So, I think if you can either add a couple of arms to the pen and/or keep Dempster out of the rotation and pick up a number 3 or 4-type starter (which the Japanese guy would likely be), the pitching will be in great shape. The Cubs lead the NL in strikeouts again last year, as they have for every year since 2000. They also had the 2nd best team ERA, an amazing 4.04. They were the best pitching NL team that didn't have Jake Peavy. My perennial pick, Carlos Zambrano came in 5th in Cy Young balloting, despite having an uncharacteristically bad start to the season (5.62 ERA through the first 2 months). I think Ted Lilly was better than anyone could have imagined, leading the rotation in ERA.
SP-
Carlos Zambrano
Rich Hill
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis
Sean Marshall
Ryan Dempster
Mark Prior
RP-
Scott Eyre
Bobby Howry
Neal Cotts
Michael Wuertz
Will Ohman
Juan Mateo
Angel Guzman
Kevin Hart
Adam Harben
Billy Petrick
Carmen Pignatiello
Jeff Samardzija
CP- Carlos Marmol
As I stated in the last post, this is part of the 40-man roster and is meant to save players from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. That's why Samardzija and a couple other rookies are on there. I don't expect to see Jeff this year. Hopefully he can get up to Iowa and pitch well. There is no need to rush him. I hear he has been pretty solid in the minors so far.
The Cubs pitching seems to be a couple tweaks away from great. We have 6 starting pitchers, if you include Prior, who I have heard is already out until mid-way through the season next year. Also of note is that he will be a free agent after next season. Ok, so call it 5 starting pitchers. However, Lou and Jim Hendry want to move Dempster back to the rotation. So, that is back up to 6. This leaves the odd man out to be Sean Marshall. That's fine. He wasn't amazing (though I thought he was quite good) and another long relief pitcher who could make spot starts is a very useful thing to have.
However, there seems to be a good amount of rumbling that we need another pitcher. Rumors are that we have been heavily scouting a Japanese pitcher named Hiroki Kuroda. Not sure where we'll fit him in, but starting pitching is always good to have. I think part of the thinking here is that they want to have 2 Japanese player to ease the transition if they dip in to that market (remember Kosuke Fukudome). There were also rumors of signing Kaz Matsui to ease the transition. That would accomplish the goal, since he has played in the MLB for a couple years now and is Japanese. However, he is a 32 year old middle infielder and not all that good. Hiroki, however, is pretty good. He's a free agent now and the Cubs tried to get him posted last year to no avail. His numbers are not bad. He had 144 strikeouts to just 21 walks 2 years ago with a 1.85 ERA. That is amazing control. Last year he leveled back out, but still had 123K / 42BB and a 3.56 ERA. The ERA last year is not very good, but the other numbers are nice. We'll see how it turns out. Sounds like the Mariners are pretty interested as well.
UPDATE 11/26/07: Cubs sign Wood to a 1 year deal reportedly for $4 million plus up to $3 mil in incentives. I think this is a great signing. With Dempster probably moving to the rotation, I think Wood has a great chance to be the new closer. Plus you are only on the hook for 1 year. Love it!
Woody is a free agent and is getting some interest from other teams (namely Boston). I would like to have him back, but word on the street is that he would like to be a starter again. I'm not so sure that's a good idea with his injury problems (but you just never know, he could be healthy). You can say we wouldn't need him as a starter, but if he ever returned to what he once was, you would have to make room for him. People ask why we don't just cut ties with Wood and Prior to get it over with. Do you remember in 2003 when Dusty Baker said that Carlos Zambrano would be the best of the Wood/Prior/Big Z combo? A lot of people thought he was nuts. You have to remember how good Wood and Prior were back then. If they can stay healthy and get back an inkling of that dominance, they'd be some of the best pitchers on our staff.
So, I think if you can either add a couple of arms to the pen and/or keep Dempster out of the rotation and pick up a number 3 or 4-type starter (which the Japanese guy would likely be), the pitching will be in great shape. The Cubs lead the NL in strikeouts again last year, as they have for every year since 2000. They also had the 2nd best team ERA, an amazing 4.04. They were the best pitching NL team that didn't have Jake Peavy. My perennial pick, Carlos Zambrano came in 5th in Cy Young balloting, despite having an uncharacteristically bad start to the season (5.62 ERA through the first 2 months). I think Ted Lilly was better than anyone could have imagined, leading the rotation in ERA.
State of the Cubs Lineup
The Cubs just finalized their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 draft. With moves starting to happen around the league with free agent signings and trades, here's what we have right now.
C- Geovany Soto
1B- Derek Lee
2B- Mark DeRosa
SS- Ryan Theriot
3B- Aramis Ramirez
LF- Alfonso Soriano
CF- Felix Pie
RF- Matt Murton
Bench-
Daryl Ward 1B
Ronny Cedeno SS
Mike Fontenot 2B
Omar Infante 2B/SS
Eric Patterson 2B/OF
Sam Fuld OF
Angel Pagan OF
Henry Blanco C
Jake Fox C
You'll notice a couple fielders that you either don't know, or that saw limited or no playing time last year. This is because for the Rule 5 Draft, you have to move everyone up to the 40-Man Roster that you want to save. The Rule 5 Draft is where teams can poach other teams' minor leaguers that have not been saved. I won't get too complicated, but basically if you poach someone, then you have to keep them on the roster for the entire next year or give them back. This means that for the most part, the Cubs believe these guys are (or within the next year or so will be) pro-caliber players.
I think this list illustrates that the Cubs really need outfielders (as I've said before). The infield depth is solid, with plenty of backups. It goes without explanation that the anchors are D.Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Both are amoung the best at their position in all of baseball.
I'm not entirely sold on Theriot. He hit great for a while, but a .266 average to end the year is not all that useful. He needs to prove he deserves to be there, otherwise we have a plethora of other Mendoza Level infielders who could step in. DeRosa was good last year. His line was 293/371/420. That's almost an .800 OPS. You've gotta keep that guy in the lineup, which is why he played every infield position along with some outfield last year. You aren't sure what you have with Soto, but he sure tore up the minors last year (Pacific Coast League MVP) and looked good in his cup of coffee at the bigs.
Shortstop and the glut of 26-year-old middle infielders are my concern (as it was last year). Some of those guys are going to play in Iowa next year, there's just not enough room. Especially since Lou had good luck with veteran guys off the bench (I would look for us to acquire another one go to with Ward). Of the people currently on the roster, I expect Fuld, Pagan and Patterson (Corey's little brother) to start in AAA (and Fontenot unless they move Infante).
C- Geovany Soto
1B- Derek Lee
2B- Mark DeRosa
SS- Ryan Theriot
3B- Aramis Ramirez
LF- Alfonso Soriano
CF- Felix Pie
RF- Matt Murton
Bench-
Daryl Ward 1B
Ronny Cedeno SS
Mike Fontenot 2B
Omar Infante 2B/SS
Eric Patterson 2B/OF
Sam Fuld OF
Angel Pagan OF
Henry Blanco C
Jake Fox C
You'll notice a couple fielders that you either don't know, or that saw limited or no playing time last year. This is because for the Rule 5 Draft, you have to move everyone up to the 40-Man Roster that you want to save. The Rule 5 Draft is where teams can poach other teams' minor leaguers that have not been saved. I won't get too complicated, but basically if you poach someone, then you have to keep them on the roster for the entire next year or give them back. This means that for the most part, the Cubs believe these guys are (or within the next year or so will be) pro-caliber players.
I think this list illustrates that the Cubs really need outfielders (as I've said before). The infield depth is solid, with plenty of backups. It goes without explanation that the anchors are D.Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Both are amoung the best at their position in all of baseball.
I'm not entirely sold on Theriot. He hit great for a while, but a .266 average to end the year is not all that useful. He needs to prove he deserves to be there, otherwise we have a plethora of other Mendoza Level infielders who could step in. DeRosa was good last year. His line was 293/371/420. That's almost an .800 OPS. You've gotta keep that guy in the lineup, which is why he played every infield position along with some outfield last year. You aren't sure what you have with Soto, but he sure tore up the minors last year (Pacific Coast League MVP) and looked good in his cup of coffee at the bigs.
Shortstop and the glut of 26-year-old middle infielders are my concern (as it was last year). Some of those guys are going to play in Iowa next year, there's just not enough room. Especially since Lou had good luck with veteran guys off the bench (I would look for us to acquire another one go to with Ward). Of the people currently on the roster, I expect Fuld, Pagan and Patterson (Corey's little brother) to start in AAA (and Fontenot unless they move Infante).
Monday, November 12, 2007
Jock Jones & The State of Cubs OF
Jacque (or Jock which is what announcers who can't pronounce his name call him) Jones was traded today by the Cubs in what was likely a salary dump. Jones made 5.6 million last year. It seems very likely this deal was made to free up hot stove money. The Winter Meetings are a few weeks away and this is when deals are being negotiated to sign free agents and make trades between teams. It seems obvious that the team was not committed to Jones and will likely make an attempt at one of the top outfielders available on the free market.
We received Omar Infante and cash from the Tigers. Tell me if this sounds familiar, Omar is a 26 year old utility/middle infielder with a .270 batting average and an on-base percentage of 300. They've got to either trade him or trade another one of our players that are exactly the same (Theriot, Fontenot, Cedeno, Eric Patterson, etc). Infante has played a couple full seasons, so you know what you've got with him. The point is that he was not the reason they made the deal. The deal was to free up Jones' 5.6 mil, so they can spend that cash on an outfielder.
The Cubs currently have the following outfielders: Alfonso Soriano. The rest of the outfielders on the Cubs roster are backups at best and all of them are young and inexperienced. You might be able to start 1, but you can't start two of them every day. As much as everyone loves Red (Matt Murton), he wasn't an everyday player last year and might not ever have enough average or power for a contender. Also available are: Felix Pie (not ready), Eric Patterson (not ready and also a 2B), Angel Pagan (not ready), and Sam Fuld (didn't get a hit last year, but made that awesome catch). With only Soriano being a viable option as a starter for a contending team (which I hope we are), they need to make a splash.
BudManCubsFan hears (and I see quite a bit on the interweb about it), that the Cubs are aggressively pursuing Japanese free agent, Kosuke Fukudome. At the right price, he could have a lot to offer. I'm not sure why he only played 80 games last year, but his stats look great. A career on-base percentage of .400 and slugging of .550 are both awesome. Obviously he won't put up numbers like that in the MLB, but an OPS of .960 last year and 1.100 the year before is pretty stellar. Some of that should translate. The Cubs need guys who can get on base and Fukudome is one of them.
The top options available on the free agent market are:
Torii Hunter CF
32 Years old - 7 time gold glove winner
OBP (last 3 years): 337, 336, 334
SLG (last 3 years): 452, 490, 505
Andruw Jones CF
30 Years old - 10 time gold glove winner
OBP (last 3 years): 347, 363, 311
SLG (last 3 years): 575, 531, 413
Aaron Rowand CF
30 Years old - 1 time gold glove winner
OBP (last 3 years): 329, 321, 374
SLG (last 3 years): 407, 425, 515
Shannon Stewart LF
33 Years old - some injury issues
OBP (last 3 years over 100 games): 364, 323, 345
SLG (last 3 years over 100 games): 459, 388, 394
Geoff Jenkins LF/RF
33 Years old
OBP (last 3 years): 375, 357, 319
SLG (last 3 years): 513, 434, 471
So Taguchi LF
38 Years old
OBP (last 3 years): 322. 335, 350
SLG (last 3 years): 412, 351, 368
Barry Bonds LF/DH
Under no circumstances do I want Barry Bonds on the Cubs.
We received Omar Infante and cash from the Tigers. Tell me if this sounds familiar, Omar is a 26 year old utility/middle infielder with a .270 batting average and an on-base percentage of 300. They've got to either trade him or trade another one of our players that are exactly the same (Theriot, Fontenot, Cedeno, Eric Patterson, etc). Infante has played a couple full seasons, so you know what you've got with him. The point is that he was not the reason they made the deal. The deal was to free up Jones' 5.6 mil, so they can spend that cash on an outfielder.
The Cubs currently have the following outfielders: Alfonso Soriano. The rest of the outfielders on the Cubs roster are backups at best and all of them are young and inexperienced. You might be able to start 1, but you can't start two of them every day. As much as everyone loves Red (Matt Murton), he wasn't an everyday player last year and might not ever have enough average or power for a contender. Also available are: Felix Pie (not ready), Eric Patterson (not ready and also a 2B), Angel Pagan (not ready), and Sam Fuld (didn't get a hit last year, but made that awesome catch). With only Soriano being a viable option as a starter for a contending team (which I hope we are), they need to make a splash.
BudManCubsFan hears (and I see quite a bit on the interweb about it), that the Cubs are aggressively pursuing Japanese free agent, Kosuke Fukudome. At the right price, he could have a lot to offer. I'm not sure why he only played 80 games last year, but his stats look great. A career on-base percentage of .400 and slugging of .550 are both awesome. Obviously he won't put up numbers like that in the MLB, but an OPS of .960 last year and 1.100 the year before is pretty stellar. Some of that should translate. The Cubs need guys who can get on base and Fukudome is one of them.
The top options available on the free agent market are:
Torii Hunter CF
32 Years old - 7 time gold glove winner
OBP (last 3 years): 337, 336, 334
SLG (last 3 years): 452, 490, 505
Andruw Jones CF
30 Years old - 10 time gold glove winner
OBP (last 3 years): 347, 363, 311
SLG (last 3 years): 575, 531, 413
Aaron Rowand CF
30 Years old - 1 time gold glove winner
OBP (last 3 years): 329, 321, 374
SLG (last 3 years): 407, 425, 515
Shannon Stewart LF
33 Years old - some injury issues
OBP (last 3 years over 100 games): 364, 323, 345
SLG (last 3 years over 100 games): 459, 388, 394
Geoff Jenkins LF/RF
33 Years old
OBP (last 3 years): 375, 357, 319
SLG (last 3 years): 513, 434, 471
So Taguchi LF
38 Years old
OBP (last 3 years): 322. 335, 350
SLG (last 3 years): 412, 351, 368
Barry Bonds LF/DH
Under no circumstances do I want Barry Bonds on the Cubs.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Start the Healing
So, the World Series ended last week with the Red Sox winning their second championship in 4 years. I watched it with Divya and Guatam, who went to school in Boston. I really enjoy explaining the game I love so much. D&G are Red Sox fans and know plenty about baseball, but I love answering questions about the game and describing the intricacies. They seemed to enjoy it as well, asking me lots of questions. I just love postseason baseball so much.
The Cubbies made the playoffs after clinching the Central. As you probably know, they were swept out of the playoffs by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs played poorly as a team, with the most painful performance being that Aramis Ramirez did not get a hit in the 3 game series. But baseball is a team game and we didn't pitch particularly well either. The big story there was that Zambrano was taken out of game one after just 85 pitches. I don't really fault Lou for this. Despite not giving up many runs, Z had gotten himself in trouble several times during that game and turning it over to Marmol (who was one of the best relievers in baseball this year) was questionable, but certainly defendable. We pay him to make the hard decisions.
Everyone knows I'm a big Cubs fan and when we got swept, everyone wanted to talk about it. I don't think dad and I talked about it for a couple days afterwards. It is painful to get swept, but you have to remember the good. We lost 96 games last year and were the worst in the NL. That is a huge turn around. The Cubs have proven they are willing to do what it takes to put a contender on the field and I'm looking forward to the offseason.
I don't expect huge splashes, but we certainly have some needs. I'd like to see Woody re-signed. I'd like to bolster the pitching, even if just in minor ways like that. I think he deserves a 2 year deal. More pressing, we are going to need a centerfielder or corner outfielder. The Cubs did not pick up the option on Floyd. So, you've got Jacque Jones to play right or center. I'd like to see a corner outfielder with some power or a centerfielder who really gets on base. The centerfielder market is deep this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubbies make a play for one of them.
The rest of the year after baseball is always slow, but now that the offseason is here, you can start the speculation. You can start running the numbers. The Hot Stove is just starting to warm. I hate winter, but there will be some sporadic updates to the site. I'll leave you with my favorite baseball quote, it is about the offseason and is from a Cubs 2nd baseman.
“People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” - Rogers Hornsby
I couldn't have said it better myself. Last year pitchers and catchers reported on my birthday. I can't wait until I turn 27.
The Cubbies made the playoffs after clinching the Central. As you probably know, they were swept out of the playoffs by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs played poorly as a team, with the most painful performance being that Aramis Ramirez did not get a hit in the 3 game series. But baseball is a team game and we didn't pitch particularly well either. The big story there was that Zambrano was taken out of game one after just 85 pitches. I don't really fault Lou for this. Despite not giving up many runs, Z had gotten himself in trouble several times during that game and turning it over to Marmol (who was one of the best relievers in baseball this year) was questionable, but certainly defendable. We pay him to make the hard decisions.
Everyone knows I'm a big Cubs fan and when we got swept, everyone wanted to talk about it. I don't think dad and I talked about it for a couple days afterwards. It is painful to get swept, but you have to remember the good. We lost 96 games last year and were the worst in the NL. That is a huge turn around. The Cubs have proven they are willing to do what it takes to put a contender on the field and I'm looking forward to the offseason.
I don't expect huge splashes, but we certainly have some needs. I'd like to see Woody re-signed. I'd like to bolster the pitching, even if just in minor ways like that. I think he deserves a 2 year deal. More pressing, we are going to need a centerfielder or corner outfielder. The Cubs did not pick up the option on Floyd. So, you've got Jacque Jones to play right or center. I'd like to see a corner outfielder with some power or a centerfielder who really gets on base. The centerfielder market is deep this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubbies make a play for one of them.
The rest of the year after baseball is always slow, but now that the offseason is here, you can start the speculation. You can start running the numbers. The Hot Stove is just starting to warm. I hate winter, but there will be some sporadic updates to the site. I'll leave you with my favorite baseball quote, it is about the offseason and is from a Cubs 2nd baseman.
“People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” - Rogers Hornsby
I couldn't have said it better myself. Last year pitchers and catchers reported on my birthday. I can't wait until I turn 27.
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